IJEP

Editorial : The December 2025 issue of the International Journal of Economic Performance presents 26 articles focusing on critical global themes

2025-12-19T04:44:06+01:00

Editorial

The December 2025 issue of the International Journal of Economic Performance presents 26 articles focusing on critical global themes

The editorial of this issue was written by Saïd SOUAM, Professor of Economics,

Paris Nanterre University (EconomiX) (France) . Associate Editor of the journal.

Advancing Corporate Credit Risk Assessment in Emerging Markets: A Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning Classifiers in South Africa

2025-12-19T05:04:12+01:00

This study examines the predictive power of machine learning techniques in corporate credit rating assessment using firm-level financial data from 208 companies across three key sectors in South Africa. By employing statistical models alongside advanced classifiers, including logistic regression, support vector machines, random forest, decision trees, k-nearest neighbors, and XGBoost, the analysis evaluates model performance using accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, and the Matthews correlation coefficient. The empirical design incorporates financial ratios capturing liquidity, solvency, profitability, and efficiency, thereby aligning predictive analytics with established financial theory. Results demonstrate that while traditional models provide a baseline framework, ensemble and kernel-based methods deliver superior classification accuracy, particularly when sectoral heterogeneity is considered. These findings underscore the growing role of artificial intelligence in improving credit risk assessments, enhancing financial inclusion, and supporting regulatory oversight in emerging markets. The study offers theoretical contributions to credit risk modeling and provides policy recommendations for integrating explainable machine learning into financial supervision and lending practices.

ARIMA Analysis of Nepalese Foreign Labor Employment

2025-12-19T05:25:41+01:00

This research seeks to evaluate the employment of foreign workers in Nepal today and their contribution to the economy. Using the ARIMA forecasting model, the research foresees patterns of Nepalese foreign labor migration in the future. The findings show the labor migration statistics from 1995 to projections after 2030, showing a trend of continuous increase with a significant rise projected to happen post-2020. In the study, both AR and MR remain unchanged, as desired for successful prediction. The analysis identifies that the expected growth in foreign labor migration will have major consequences for Nepal's society, economy, and policy-making process, which will in turn affect employment trends, remittance inflow, and infrastructure needs.

From Checklists to Algorithms: Historical Trajectories and the Transformative Role of Artificial Intelligence in Auditing

2025-12-19T05:37:16+01:00

This conceptual study explores the historical evolution of auditing and evaluates the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence (AI) in reshaping core audit structures. Using institutional theory and models of technological disruption, it maps critical phases in audit development and identifies AI's impact across five domains: audit quality, efficiency, ethics, governance, and regulatory responsiveness. The study formulates theoretical propositions to clarify both opportunities and risks of AI integration. Findings suggest a historical pattern of reactive adaptation in auditing, with implications for ethics and competence development. The research offers practical and regulatory guidance and contributes original insights into the intersection of AI and Shariah-compliant audit systems.

Financialization and Innovation of Chinese Listed Firms: An Empirical Appraisal

2025-12-19T06:58:13+01:00

This article thoroughly examines the links between financialization and innovation activities of a sample of 312 publicly listed Chinese firms for the period 2000-2023, encompassing the crucial post-pandemic recovery phase. We utilize various panel models, including fixed effects, random effects, and dynamic estimations across different periods and financial contexts. According to our research, financialization has a negative impact on firms’ innovation rates. It harms financially constrained firms more strongly, and its impact increases over time, starting at -0.08 in the 2000-2010 period and reaching -0.22 in the 2016-2023 period. Our findings offer policy recommendations that could help mitigate the adverse effects of growing financialization on the innovation of Chinese firms.

Economics & 5IR model: Towards a competitive and sustainable economic path

2025-12-19T07:16:23+01:00

The objectives of this study are to identify the 5I- revolution in terms of the concepts and the main pillars on which it is based, in addition to pointing out the fundamental differences between the previous industrial revolutions. To achieve these objectives, a descriptive method is employed with its analytical tools. The findings revealed that, there is a direct impact on the economy as a key through the development of productivity (smart production) based on technology and data in design. Besides, accessing the sustainability model, human resources and machine and achieving sustainable economic growth are important features in building a smart economy. To sum up, The 5.0 is key to the global economy, it is suggested to develop human resources (smart HR), use of automation in the economy (operations & process) and achieve integration between Sustainability & HR.

Climate Change and Rural Livelihoods Vulnerability Assessment of Sudan and Nigeria

2025-12-19T09:02:55+01:00

This paper focuses on climate change vulnerability and its impact on rural livelihoods in Nigeria and Sudan, utilizing the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach (SLA) to analyze selected environmental, economic and social factors that affect agricultural productivity and social wellbeing. Utilizing a quantitative research design which bases itself on a positivist paradigm, the research investigates secondary data from the period of 2000 to 2023 sourced from World Bank and applies Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) technique preventing serial correlation and endogeneity with mixed integration orders. The study establishes that climate change vulnerability along with the impacts, especially in Nigeria and Sudan, exacerbates livelihood insecurity, thus highlighting the importance of climate-resilient practices such as using drought-tolerant crops, agroforestry, sustainable land management, and clean energy technologies like solar water pumping and rural electrification. Potential suggestions include strengthening measures of social inclusion, developing environmentally friendly forms of financing, and improving disaster preparedness to mitigate climate shocks. Indeed, the research’s reliance on quantitative data to establish clear numerical patterns stresses that future works need to address the qualitative knowledge gap, diversify the geographical setting and discuss community-level adaptation initiatives while offering the strategy for the development of sustainable livelihoods affected by climate change.

Evaluation of Food Security Developments in the Arab Countries: An Analysis Based on Global food security Indicators (2010–2022)

2025-12-19T09:11:36+01:00

This paper evaluates the developments in food security across Arab countries during the period 2010–2022, drawing on the four dimensions outlined in the Global Food Security Index: availability, affordability, quality and safety, and resilience. The study highlights the critical role of food security in achieving economic and social stability, particularly in a region highly exposed to external shocks, climate change, and geopolitical tensions. Despite notable progress in some areas, the findings reveal persistent disparities among Arab countries, especially in terms of affordability and resilience. The analysis also underscores the importance of sustainable agricultural practices, investment in infrastructure, and enhanced regional cooperation to ensure long-term food security. Based on the results, the study offers a set of policy recommendations to strengthen food systems, improve nutritional outcomes, and reduce vulnerability to future crises.

Modelling the costs of natural disasters in indonesia: A Monte Carlo simulations

2025-12-19T09:35:44+01:00

This research investigates the economic impact of natural disasters on a national scale and explores how this impact can be reduced through various mitigation and adaptation strategies.
Utilizing Indonesia as a case study, probabilistic models and Monte Carlo simulations were employed to predict future losses from earthquakes, floods and wildfires. This methodological approach mirrored risk assessment practices leveraging historical disaster data to accurately reproduce past loss patterns in specific regions. JMP statistical software facilitated the comprehensive analysis, generating robust estimates designed to empower policymakers in implementing effective measures for minimizing economic disruption. The findings and subsequent discussions analyse these strategies to identify various approaches that can be employed to reduce the financial burden imposed by natural disasters.

Green human resource management as a strategic approach to achieving organizational sustainability: A study of a sample of Tunisian companies

2025-12-19T17:36:39+01:00

Despite growing interest in green human resource management (GHRM), research remains concentrated in Asian contexts with limited empirical investigation in North African countries like Tunisia, where conceptual consensus and standardized assessment tools are lacking, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises facing green transition challenges.
This study examines GHRM theoretical foundations and practical implementation in Tunisian companies to understand how practices are structured and their impact on organizational efficiency and environmental sustainability. A mixed-method approach was employed, combining a quantitative survey of 40 companies across various sizes and sectors, semi-structured interviews with 10 HR and CSR experts, and two start-up case studies. Data were analyzed using SPSS with Chi-square tests, Pearson and Spearman correlations, and descriptive statistics.
Results show GHRM is progressively transforming Tunisian corporate practices through training and environmental awareness. The industrial sector demonstrates highest integration with formal policies, while primary and tertiary sectors remain developmental. Company size significantly influences adoption, with large firms more likely formalizing green policies (χ² = 8.76, p < 0.05). A positive correlation exists between GHRM adoption and organizational performance (r = 0.57, p < 0.01). Implementation barriers include limited management commitment, insufficient resources, and weak environmental culture. Recommendations emphasize developing national GHRM strategies with financial incentives, senior management involvement, and environmental culture promotion.

Impact of Economic and Social Infrastructures on the Long-run Economic Growth in Nepal

2025-12-19T17:53:44+01:00

The long-term effects of Nepal’s social and economic infrastructure on economic growth are examined in this study. It is based on secondary data gathered from numerous economic surveys, documents from the Nepalese government’s budget, and publications from the country’s central bank, Nepal Rastra Bank. The descriptive and exploratory research designs are applied. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, ARDL bound testing, Breusch-Godfrey serial correlation test, heteroscedasticity, and Jarque-Bera normality test are some of the statistical and econometric methods employed. Investment in social infrastructure and economic growth are significantly positively correlated. There is a strong correlation between social infrastructure and economic infrastructure in Nepal’s economic development. There is long-run co-integration between economic growth and social and economic infrastructures. One percent increase in social infrastructure investment results in a 1.521 percent increase in GDP but a one percent increase in economic infrastructure results 0.456 percent increase in GDP. Investment in social infrastructure has a multiplier effect on the GDP growth of Nepal. Therefore, investment in social infrastructure is more profitable for the nation.

Energy Transition and Economic Resilience in Europe: Challenges and Opportunities in the Post-Ukraine War Era

2025-12-19T18:07:07+01:00

This paper examines the interconnection between Europe’s energy transition and its economic resilience in the aftermath of the Ukraine war. The disruption of fossil fuel supplies revealed structural vulnerabilities in European energy markets, accelerating the urgency of diversifying energy sources and investing in renewable technologies. The study synthesizes key challenges—such as supply chain disruptions, insufficient investment, and regulatory barriers—while also identifying growth opportunities in technological innovation, shifting market dynamics, and public-private partnerships. A resilience framework is proposed, emphasizing indicators like supply security, price stability, and market flexibility. Case studies from Germany, France, and Scandinavia illustrate contrasting pathways to resilience through different policy choices and energy mixes. Findings suggest that while the transition enhances long-term resilience, short-term economic vulnerabilities persist due to inflated costs, political uncertainties, and uneven regulatory landscapes. The paper concludes that Europe’s ability to reconcile the pace of transition with economic stability will determine its success in achieving climate neutrality and energy security by 2050.

Determinants of Economic Growth in D-8 Countries: The Role of Financial Integration, Human Development, and Climate Change

2025-12-19T18:20:42+01:00

This study investigates the primary determinants of economic growth in D-8 countries by examining the roles of financial integration, human development, and climate change. Using a panel dataset covering the period from 2002 to 2022, we apply both dynamic system GMM and quantile regression techniques to account for heterogeneity, endogeneity, and distributional differences in growth responses. Our findings indicate that financial integration does not have a consistently significant effect on growth, suggesting that its potential benefits are conditional on domestic absorptive capacities and institutional quality. In contrast, human development emerges as a key driver of economic growth, although its short-term impact appears muted in some specifications. Environmental indicators confirm a nonlinear relationship consistent with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), wherein emissions initially rise with income but decline beyond a threshold. These results underscore the importance of strategic policy alignment ensuring that financial openness supports productive investment, human capital development is prioritized, and climate policies are integrated into growth agendas.

Assessing the Dynamics of Fintech and Financial Inclusion in Reducing Inequality in Malaysia: a Bayesian-Wavelet approach

2025-12-19T18:38:51+01:00

This paper examines the impact of FinTech on financial inclusion and inequality reduction in Malaysia within the framework of SDG 10. Using a Bayesian VAR model and wavelet coherence analysis (2004–2022), the study analyzes dynamic links between FinTech, inclusion, inequality, and growth. A FinTech Adoption Index (PCA) and a novel Financial Inclusion Index are constructed. Results reveal bidirectional causality, with FinTech and inclusion jointly reducing disparities and fostering inclusive growth. Policy implications highlight the need for inclusive ecosystems, literacy programs, and adaptive regulation.

An ARDL-Inspired Conceptual Model: Analyzing the Short- and Long-Term Dynamics of AI, Big Data, and Trust in Marketing (2025-2030)

2025-12-19T21:59:18+01:00

This study employs a qualitative adaptation of the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to examine the interrelationships between artificial intelligence (AI) adoption, big data utilization, customer trust, and global marketing performance with projections toward 2030. Using annual data from 2020-2024, the analysis reveals strong positive long-term relationships between AI/big data adoption and marketing performance, while highlighting the complex mediating role of customer trust in this ecosystem. The findings indicate that AI demonstrates the largest impact coefficient (2.71), followed by big data (1.22) and customer trust (0.89). The bounds test confirms cointegration (F-statistic = 5.90 > critical value = 4.10), establishing a long-run equilibrium relationship. Projections suggest marketing performance will reach 11.3% by 2030, with AI contributing 4.1%, big data 2.8%, and customer trust 1.5% to this growth. However, these results are constrained by the limited sample size (5 years) and require cautious interpretation.

The Role of Artificial Intelligence in Developing Accounting Audit Practices:A Literature Review

2025-12-19T22:42:23+01:00

The accounting audit profession has undergone a significant transformation due to the adoption of artificial intelligence (AI), including machine learning, deep learning, and natural language processing techniques. This study reviews the recent literature (2020–2025) on the role of AI in developing auditing practices, focusing on five main areas: use cases and practical applications, AI’s impact on fraud detection and audit quality, operational efficiency and audit costs, governance, ethics and bias, and auditors’ readiness and auditability of AI systems.

Findings indicate that AI enhances audit efficiency and effectiveness, improves fraud detection accuracy, and reshapes auditors’ roles toward analytical and strategic tasks. The study also highlights the importance of establishing ethical governance frameworks, data protection, minimizing algorithmic bias, and developing auditors’ skills to interact effectively with AI systems.

However, the review reveals notable research gaps, particularly regarding small and medium-sized enterprises, auditors’ readiness, and the absence of comprehensive ethical governance standards.

The study recommends adopting hybrid and advanced AI models, strengthening professional training for auditors, and promoting applied research in SMEs to ensure responsible and sustainable use of AI technologies in accounting auditing

Digital Transformation in the European Union Countries Member of G7 - An Analytical Study-

2025-12-19T22:51:56+01:00

This study aims to determine the status of digital transformation in the European Union (EU) countries that are members of the Group of Seven (G7). This study focuses on analyzing statistical data issued by a European statistical agency (Eurostat). To detail the aspects of the study, we use the deductive method to describe the theoretical concepts related to digital transformation in addition to the inductive method to explain the data related to digital transformation in the EU countries that are members of the G7. The study found that Germany is ahead of France and Italy in all digital transformation technologies as well as allocating more budgets and training programs for employee training than France and Italy.

Predicting stock market index prices using Facebook Prophet and XGBoost: evidence from the Saudi stock market

2025-12-19T23:03:26+01:00

This study investigates the effectiveness of two machine learning models—Facebook Prophet and XGBoost—in predicting the Saudi Stock Market Index (TASI). The study relied on a daily series of prices during the post-COVID-19 recovery period. The results reveal that there is a difference in prediction accuracy, as the XGBoost model outperformed the Facebook Prophet model in various accuracy criteria (MSE, RMSE, and MAPE). The study concludes that integrating the strengths of both models can enhance stock index forecasting accuracy, providing valuable insights for financial analysts and policymakers.

Particle Swarm Optimization for Constrained Financial Portfolio Selection: An Empirical Study on the US Market

2025-12-19T23:16:20+01:00

This study investigates Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) application to portfolio optimization under realistic investment constraints. Using 48 liquid assets' market data (2019-2024), we compare PSO against classical Markowitz optimization and equal-weight benchmarks. The PSO algorithm incorporates weight limits (20%), sector concentration (40%), volatility targeting (18%), and diversification requirements. Results demonstrate PSO's superior performance with Sharpe ratio of 0.9192 versus 0.7281 for constrained Markowitz and 0.7499 for equal-weight portfolios, achieving 26.2% improvement in risk-adjusted returns.

Reading the reality of business incubators and emerging institutions in the United States of America, the People's Republic of China, the United Kingdom

2025-12-19T23:29:55+01:00

This study aims to analyze the reality of business incubators and emerging institutions in three global economic powers: the United States of America, the People's Republic of China, and the United Kingdom, by comparing policies, infrastructure, services provided, and economic performance of these systems, This study highlights that the success of business incubators is not only measured by infrastructure or financing, but by the integration of government policies, cooperation between universities and the private sector, and the cultural environment that motivates leadership. The three experiences are reference models that developing countries can benefit from to design support systems for emerging institutions towards achieving sustainable development and knowledge -based economy.

The Ethical Behaviour of Employees in Travel Agencies - A Case Study of Tunisian Travel Agencies-

2025-12-19T23:47:54+01:00

In this study, an attempt is made to focus on the ethical behaviour of employees in Tunisian travel agencies and to clarify the ethical practices of the employees and how they affect customer satisfaction. This is based on a methodology grounded in a descriptive and analytical perspective through the formulation of a questionnaire to collect data, then analyzing them using SPSS software for a sample which consists of 136 clients who have relationships and dealings with Tunisian travel agencies. The results of the data analysis showed that the general level of customer satisfaction was high and statistically significant, in light of the multiple dimensions governing the adoption of ethical behaviours in dealing with clients.

The Purple Economy as an Economic Strategy: Growth, Employment, and Exports in Portugal

2025-12-20T04:01:12+01:00

This study examines the purple economy as a cultural pillar of sustainable development in Portugal, where fragmented governance, modest investment, and weak internationalization limit potential. It hypothesizes that integrating cultural value into economic policy enhances growth, employment, and competitiveness. Using a descriptive–analytical approach with secondary data, results show that cultural and creative sectors contribute 2.5% of GDP, employ over 200,000 workers, and generate €714 million in exports. Despite reliance on secondary sources, the study highlights the need for coordinated strategies and contributes originality by applying the purple economy framework to Portugal and outlining policy implications for sustainable growth.

A Bibliometric Perspective on the Relationship Between Artificial Intelligence and Digital Culture

2025-12-20T04:18:26+01:00

This study presents a bibliometric analysis of global research at the intersection of artificial intelligence and digital culture (2015–2025). It draws on 489 Scopus-indexed studies and follows the PRISMA framework. Findings show substantial growth during (2021–2024), with the United States leading output and robust international collaboration networks. The analysis confirms the centrality of artificial intelligence and the emergence of interconnected themes, underscoring the field’s interdisciplinary nature and the need for greater attention to its ethical, educational, and cultural dimensions.

Accounting Conservatism in Financial Technology: Theoretical Foundations, Applications, Benefits, and Challenges

2025-12-20T04:31:42+01:00

This paper examines the evolving role of accounting conservatism in the FinTech-driven transformation of the banking sector, focusing on Banca Comercială Română (BCR) as a case study. Rooted in prudence and verification principles, accounting conservatism remains a key mechanism for mitigating risk and enhancing the reliability of financial reporting. As BCR continues its digital transformation through online banking, mobile payments, and blockchain-based transaction verification, the interaction between technological innovation and conservative accounting practices becomes increasingly complex. Using data from 2020 to 2023, this study finds that BCR’s adoption of conservative provisioning and prudent asset valuation contributed to a 21% reduction in digital loan default rates and a 30% improvement in transparency indicators. However, the study also identifies challenges arising from automation, regulatory adaptation, and potential over-conservatism that may slow innovation. The findings highlight the importance of conditional and adaptive conservatism as a balanced framework to sustain financial stability and investor confidence in rapidly digitalizing financial markets.

The Role of Energy Policy in the Post-Crisis European Industrial Strategy (Ukraine, COVID-19)

2025-12-20T04:53:09+01:00

The European Union’s industrial landscape has undergone profound transformations in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the energy crisis triggered by the war in Ukraine. This study investigates the evolving role of energy policy as a central pillar of the EU's post-crisis industrial strategy. By integrating data from Eurostat, ECB, OECD, IMF, and World Bank, alongside peer-reviewed literature from Scopus and Web of Science databases, the research employs a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative trend analysis with qualitative policy evaluation.

Findings reveal a decisive shift toward strategic autonomy in energy, as evidenced by declining energy import dependency and increased renewable energy deployment. However, this transition demands substantial investment—estimated at up to 3.7% of EU GDP annually—and exposes short-term vulnerabilities in traditional manufacturing sectors. While carbon pricing and energy efficiency initiatives enhance long-term competitiveness, the lack of coordination in state aid and industrial policy poses risks to market integration and cohesion.

The study underscores the necessity of aligning energy, industrial, and financial policies under a unified strategic framework. It concludes that a resilient, green, and competitive European industry requires harmonized governance, targeted investment tools, and an inclusive approach to transition planning.

The Impact of Entrepreneurial Marketing on MSMEs’ Performance in Nigeria

2025-12-20T05:06:48+01:00

There is considerable debate on the entrepreneurial marketing construct's nature, its dimensionality, interdependence, and the characteristics of its dimensions. Entrepreneurial marketing behaviour can affect the success and performance of micro, small and medium-scale enterprises (MSMEs). The study investigates the influence of entrepreneurial marketing on the performance of MSMEs in Nigeria. The study used descriptive statistics of frequency counts, based on sample selection of 132 respondents to generate data. The Pearson Product Moment Coefficient was used to test the hypotheses, and the P-value was used to arrive at a rejection or acceptance decision. Factors studied include proactiveness, being opportunity focused, being customer centric, value creation and innovation. The results obtained from the analysis showed that there exists a positive relationship between all the independent variables studied (opportunity focused, being customer centric, value creation and innovation) and dependent variables (MSMEs performance). The researcher recommended that MSMEs owners and managers should be more proactive with business activities. MSMEs owners and managers should constantly search for opportunities in the environment, to align and even be ahead of the ever-changing business environment. MSME Owners and managers should constantly be more customer centric, MSMEs owners and managers should be more value oriented, constantly ensuring that their products and services delivers gains or solve important problems for the customers.

Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investment, Macroeconomic Stability, and Sustainable Manufacturing Development in Nigeria

2025-12-20T05:15:12+01:00

This paper examines the effects of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the performance of Nigeria's manufacturing sector using annual time series data from 1981 to 2023. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework and its error correction specification, this paper examines the short- and long-run dynamics between manufacturing value added (MANV), manufacturing capacity utilization (MCAP), and FDI inflows (FDIR) as well as key macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, external reserves, balance of payments, inflation, and interest rate. Unit root and bounds tests confirm the combination of stationary and cointegrated variables, and thus the appropriateness of the ARDL approach. The empirical findings show that exchange rate volatility, external reserves, and inflation are key drivers of manufacturing performance, while economic growth and export competitiveness are key determinants of FDI inflows. The error correction terms across the models show strong adjustment toward long-run equilibrium, which underscores the importance of macroeconomic stability, export diversification, and productivity-enhancing FDI in driving sustainable industrial growth. The findings offer new evidence on the role of FDI in promoting manufacturing performance and contribute to the literature on development finance and industrialization, as well as providing insights for policymakers on strengthening the resilience and competitiveness of the manufacturing sector.